It's also worth mentioning explicitly that, while we're narrowing down Cv and Cb, for sufficiently small Cc there's no reason to get the vaccine until we've got better data. If it turns out that Cv is a high multiple of heart failure or cancer within the next decade for groups with Cc < 0.01%, a lot of people are going to die unnecessarily.
Particularly true of children, where Cc is on the order of 10E-6.
But keep in mind that many still claim that the vaccine will make the whole population more immune and prevent the spread, so your probability to get Covid will depend on my vaccination status.
Also I see less and less outright claims that the vaccine will give us herd immunity, many still believe it.
I believe that for children we must only consider individual benefit/risk. We can't ask children to take on risk exceeding benefit because it has some societal benefit, even if that societal benefit were certain which it is not. I also believe that it is improper to include in the calculation the removal of masking, distancing, lockdowns and other NPIs as a benefit, even though I recognize the harm to children of such measures. Those measures are too uncertain and contingent on fear, and may create a perverse incentive to continue NPIs to coerce vaccines.
And it turns out: kids have really no benefits of those vaccines, since they have next to no risk of Covid.
Yet a very high risk, potentially incalculable, because the risk also stretches to the next generations.
Vaccinating kids will be a good touchstone if a society wants to have a future, or is willing to sacrifice its kind to the old. (And even the old don't have a benefit from the vaccines, but they are told they have).
I believe we will see the vaccination of children only in the tired old Western societies, which we could also call suicidal.
It's also worth mentioning explicitly that, while we're narrowing down Cv and Cb, for sufficiently small Cc there's no reason to get the vaccine until we've got better data. If it turns out that Cv is a high multiple of heart failure or cancer within the next decade for groups with Cc < 0.01%, a lot of people are going to die unnecessarily.
Particularly true of children, where Cc is on the order of 10E-6.
The calculation is on an individual level.
And I think it is valid.
But keep in mind that many still claim that the vaccine will make the whole population more immune and prevent the spread, so your probability to get Covid will depend on my vaccination status.
Also I see less and less outright claims that the vaccine will give us herd immunity, many still believe it.
I believe that for children we must only consider individual benefit/risk. We can't ask children to take on risk exceeding benefit because it has some societal benefit, even if that societal benefit were certain which it is not. I also believe that it is improper to include in the calculation the removal of masking, distancing, lockdowns and other NPIs as a benefit, even though I recognize the harm to children of such measures. Those measures are too uncertain and contingent on fear, and may create a perverse incentive to continue NPIs to coerce vaccines.
Yes, definitively.
And it turns out: kids have really no benefits of those vaccines, since they have next to no risk of Covid.
Yet a very high risk, potentially incalculable, because the risk also stretches to the next generations.
Vaccinating kids will be a good touchstone if a society wants to have a future, or is willing to sacrifice its kind to the old. (And even the old don't have a benefit from the vaccines, but they are told they have).
I believe we will see the vaccination of children only in the tired old Western societies, which we could also call suicidal.
Love this analysis