It's also worth mentioning explicitly that, while we're narrowing down Cv and Cb, for sufficiently small Cc there's no reason to get the vaccine until we've got better data. If it turns out that Cv is a high multiple of heart failure or cancer within the next decade for groups with Cc < 0.01%, a lot of people are going to die unnecessarily.

Particularly true of children, where Cc is on the order of 10E-6.

Expand full comment

The calculation is on an individual level.

And I think it is valid.

But keep in mind that many still claim that the vaccine will make the whole population more immune and prevent the spread, so your probability to get Covid will depend on my vaccination status.

Also I see less and less outright claims that the vaccine will give us herd immunity, many still believe it.

Expand full comment

Love this analysis

Expand full comment